The following was the dark projection made by the leading expert on coronavirus in the middle of February 2020:
WORST CASE SCENARIO – “It could infect 60% of global population if unchecked.”
Prof. Gabriel Leung
Expert on coronavirus epidemics
Chair of Public Health Medicine
Hong Kong University
Which would mean 4,680,000,000 would be infected.
Currently 13.8% of those infected become severely ill.
Which would mean 645,000,000 would become severely ill.
Currently 2.3% of those infected, die.
Which would mean 107,640,000 would die.
Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung says is possible, 46,800,000 people will die.
Now, in early April 2020 as the mass death begins we have figured out some things about our pathogen adversary.
And, perhaps, we can better predict what’s to come.
Prof. Leung predicted 60% of humans will be infected if this novel coronavirus is unchecked.
Humanity is trying to check this virus by using armies to cordon off major cities, regions.
Humanity is trying to check this disease with testing and contact tracing.
Humanity is trying to check this disease by wearing face masks.
And then there is social distancing.
Governments are trying to get the world voluntarily locked down in their homes (if they have homes).
We are learning this novel coronavirus is a nightmare pathogen.
It conceals itself in the healthy.
It flies under the radar.
People with COVID-19 who don’t get diagnosed, because they don’t get sick, or don’t feel they have anything more than a very mild cold,
are where at least two-thirds of documented COVID-19 cases come from.
Undetected cases expose far more of humanity to the virus than would otherwise occur.
And it is possible covid-19, like the Spanish Influenza will come in multiple waves.
The first wave of the Spanish Flu started in the spring of 1918.
It subsided in the summer and then in the fall of 1918, the most lethal wave, by far, started to crest.
It subsided in the early winter of 1918-19.
And then in the late winter, there was the third wave, the least of the waves.
The third wave subsided in the summer of 1919, 15 months after the onset of the pandemic.
This pandemics may have multiple waves of infection.
Waves of infection keep on coming until a sufficient number of people become immune, either by surviving infection or through effective vaccination.
How effectively humanities’ reaction to coronavirus will check this pathogen, will check future waves of infection, is yet to be seen.
Although nothing that the government of China reports about covid-19 can be trusted, it does seem like covid-19 has subsided in China.
The government reports that there is no longer sustained community transmission.
But there is a rising number of imported cases.
The same is happening in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
There is a rising risk of a second wave.
The premise of social distancing is that you can avoid the worse case scenario of as much as 60 percent of humanity becoming infected.
In the United States it is hoped that 240,000 will die, rather than 2.2 million.
And yet, this may be overly optimistic.
If there are multiple waves of covid-19 infection that would mean humanity would have to be locked-down for over a year.
This, probably, will not be possible.
And even if it was possible, we are learning that this pathogen has an amazing ability to defy all human attempts of containment,
once it is loose.
The Spanish Influenza is estimated to have infected a third of humanity.
Covid-19 still could infect a far-larger percentage of humanity.
Germany seems to be one of the countries that has most effectively responded to covid-19.
The United States is one of the countries that has least effectively responded.
Germany rapidly rolled out reliable tests.
They quickly initiated strict social distancing measures.
And effectively enforced them.
They have one of the best,
and best prepared
health care system in the world.
Germany had one of the highest number of COVID-19 cases, in Europe.
And yet, as of early April 2020, it has one of the lowest mortality rates, worldwide.
In late February, while Donnie P.P. Pussygrabber was talking about the miraculous disappearance of covid-19 in April,
and playing a lot of golf,
Germany sprung into forceful and rapid action.
In late February, the country extended school and daycare facility closures and required anyone who had contact with confirmed cases to remain in isolation for 14 days.
Even in unconfirmed cases, those who had been near someone with covid-19 like symptoms, were told to self-isolate.
Meanwhile, the government said that it would limit outside travel into the country and begin acquiring protective medical equipment to prepare for the COVID-19 fight.
Germany quickly, effectively ramped up its testing.
Germany was able to react to the situation unfolding in China in January and have testing established by mid-February.
Early access to reliable tests allowed Germany to get a handle on the disease.
Germany was prepared with an extremely high bed-to-person ratio.
The country has 8.1 hospital beds per 1,000 people and 6.1 ICU beds per 1,000 people.
The US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 and 2.4 ICU beds per 1,000 people.
In the middle of March, Germany quickly expanded the number of beds available for covid-19 cases by 1,000.
Social distancing measures were expanded and strongly enforced.
By March 22, Germany’s cases hovered at around 25,000, but deaths were just 86 — a fatality rate of approximately 0.3 percent.
In the U.S.,
Donnie P.P. Pussygrabber was playing a lot of golf and slowly becoming aware of a crisis.
In early April, Germany’s death rate is 1.2%.
In the United State it is 2.7%.
This death rate is higher than Prof. Leung’s worse-case scenario.
If the United States is unable to
not be overwhelmed,
it is likely
that more than 240,000
will die.
